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A Missing Score Is Not a Neutral Score: Three Ways Our Hackathon Judging Maths Broke

A Missing Score Is Not a Neutral Score: Three Ways Our Hackathon Judging Maths Broke

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8 min read
I simulated 160,000 backtest searches to see which overfitting corrections keep their promise

I simulated 160,000 backtest searches to see which overfitting corrections keep their promise

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4 min read
The median said every neon pays off. Splitting by price said the opposite.

The median said every neon pays off. Splitting by price said the opposite.

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4 min read
Words Fitted to a Rule's Own Mistakes Do Not Travel

Words Fitted to a Rule's Own Mistakes Do Not Travel

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6 min read
I wrote a justification in my docs, then tested it. It was mostly wrong.

I wrote a justification in my docs, then tested it. It was mostly wrong.

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7 min read
I Built the Platform That Will Judge Me: Z-Scores, Judge Islands, and a Dataset Where Nobody Agrees

I Built the Platform That Will Judge Me: Z-Scores, Judge Islands, and a Dataset Where Nobody Agrees

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6 min read
Code Completion From Your Own Repository's Statistics

Code Completion From Your Own Repository's Statistics

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5 min read
Por que 9 passageiros não contam a história toda: O Teorema do Limite Central na prática

Por que 9 passageiros não contam a história toda: O Teorema do Limite Central na prática

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3 min read
I pre-registered a test of a famous market effect — here's how it failed

I pre-registered a test of a famous market effect — here's how it failed

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7 min read
Measuring How Cost Scales by Counting Instead of Timing

Measuring How Cost Scales by Counting Instead of Timing

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5 min read
China's sports lottery is not a betting market — it's a formula

China's sports lottery is not a betting market — it's a formula

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4 min read
How long should an A/B test run? Not a number of weeks

How long should an A/B test run? Not a number of weeks

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4 min read
A Curve Fitter That Refuses to Answer

A Curve Fitter That Refuses to Answer

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4 min read
Projecting a tennis match while it's still being played, without point-by-point data

Projecting a tennis match while it's still being played, without point-by-point data

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5 min read
Before you count a replication's null, plant the claim in its own data

Before you count a replication's null, plant the claim in its own data

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14 min read
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